Andy Burnham’s council housebuilding plan risks ‘postcode lottery’

Summary: Andy Burnham’s ambitious plan for the largest council housebuilding programme since the post-war era may lead to a ‘postcode lottery’ due to uneven distribution of publicly owned land. Specialist lender Together warns that the private rented sector will continue to face pressure where social housing supply falls short.

Uneven distribution of public land threatens housing targets

Andy Burnham’s proposal for a major council housebuilding programme aims to use vacant public land to deliver a significant number of social and affordable homes. However, an analysis by specialist lender Together highlights that publicly owned brownfield land is not evenly spread across England, risking a ‘postcode lottery’ in which some areas benefit far more than others.

Together’s chief commercial officer, Ryan Etchells, explained: “Building on vacant public land is a sensible idea, but our analysis shows it can only ever be part of the answer. There isn’t enough public land to deliver a programme this size, and that’s before considering that the places with the greatest need tend to have the least land. As it stands, whether this pledge reaches your community is close to a postcode lottery.”

Etchells added that to meet the ambitious targets, sites will need to be assembled and purchased, existing land intensified, and the wider public estate utilised, all requiring swift and flexible financing.

Insufficient land capacity to meet Labour’s housing goals

Together’s review of Searchland data estimates that publicly owned brownfield land in England could accommodate between 187,000 and 207,000 homes. This falls short of Labour’s proposed 300,000-home social and affordable housing programme, even before assessing the deliverability of each site.

The lender emphasises that the government does not currently own enough registered land to build the entire programme solely on public land, meaning at least a third of homes would require land acquisition at market rates.

Areas with greatest housing shortfall lack public land

The available public land is heavily concentrated in certain areas, such as Birmingham, which has 185 sites with capacity for 11,500 homes. Conversely, around two-thirds of the 20 areas with the largest housing delivery shortfalls have little or no significant public land for development.

For example, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole face a shortfall of approximately 4,550 homes; Greenwich around 3,880; and Newham about 2,870. Other areas with substantial delivery gaps include Leicester, Sandwell, Thurrock, Southend-on-Sea, Basildon, Portsmouth and Southampton.

Meanwhile, some of the largest public landholdings are in places already meeting or exceeding housing targets, such as Leeds, Wandsworth, Waltham Forest, Newcastle and Nottingham.

Private rented sector remains crucial amid social housing shortfall

For private landlords, Burnham’s housebuilding plans are significant because pressure on the private rented sector (PRS) typically increases when social housing supply fails to meet demand.

David Smith, a partner and residential property law expert at Bishop & Sewell, noted that Burnham’s ambition to increase social housing could be positive for the PRS but stressed the need for a clearer role for private landlords.

He commented: “Perhaps more encouraging is his ambition to drive an increase in social homes. That will be a welcome move for the private rented sector. The sector has, however, been asked to do too much and is somewhat of a dumping ground in which all kinds of housing needs are expected to be addressed.”

Housing subsidy bill expected to rise

The Centre for Policy Studies has separately claimed that Burnham’s council housebuilding pledge would increase England’s housing subsidy costs. Their report estimates £39 billion over 10 years may deliver only between 14,335 and 15,494 homes annually.

The report states the average cost to build a three-bedroom semi-detached house is around £251,700, even with free land, meaning £3.9 billion per year would cover 15,494 homes.

Ben Hopkinson, head of housing and infrastructure at the Centre for Policy Studies, said: “The cost of building social housing, like all housing, has been driven up by regulation, construction costs and an unruly planning system. Subsidising rents for some on the taxpayer’s dime while refusing to tackle the broader lack of housing for all tenures suggests Andy Burnham is going to be yet another Prime Minister driven by ideology, not what actually works.”

Supporting landlords through changing housing policies

As the government’s social housing ambitions evolve, landlords should be prepared for ongoing shifts in housing supply and demand that affect the private rented sector. The uneven distribution of public land and the potential ‘postcode lottery’ effect mean that private landlords will continue to play a vital role in meeting housing needs where council housebuilding falls short.

Practical support for TLA members

Landlords can benefit from staying organised and informed as housing policies develop. TLA’s new property management and compliance platform, currently available in BETA testing, is designed to help landlords and letting agents manage their portfolios efficiently. ORBIT™ enables users to organise property information, maintain important rental documents, and access compliance resources tailored to the private rented sector.

Membership of TLA also provides practical guidance and document support to help landlords respond to changes in housing supply and regulatory expectations. Exploring TLA membership and learning more about ORBIT™ BETA access can assist landlords in preparing for the evolving housing landscape.