Housing delivery in England is projected to decline significantly over the next few years, with new home completions expected to fall well short of government targets. This trend presents important considerations for UK landlords, letting agents, and property professionals as it may impact rental market supply and demand dynamics.
Forecasted Decline in New Home Completions
Recent analysis by Savills indicates that annual housing completions in England will average approximately 167,500 between now and the 2029/30 financial year. This figure represents just over half of the government’s stated goal of 300,000 new homes per year. Over the five-year period, the total number of homes completed is expected to reach around 837,500, which aligns with the average output seen over the past two decades but remains substantially below the levels deemed necessary to meet growing housing needs.
The forecast highlights a particularly challenging short-term outlook, with completions anticipated to drop to about 152,000 in 2026/27. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors including a reduced pipeline of homes under construction and ongoing affordability pressures affecting both buyers and developers.
Challenges in Planning and Construction Pipeline
One of the key issues identified is the low volume of planning consents and construction starts, which has resulted in a thinner pipeline of new homes progressing through the development process. This bottleneck suggests that even if demand improves, it may take considerable time for new supply to respond effectively.
Additionally, the number of construction starts has decreased by 31%, further constraining future housing supply. The early stages of the planning process show some positive signs, but these improvements are unlikely to translate into increased completions in the immediate term. This situation underscores the importance of addressing barriers to development to support a more robust housing pipeline.
Affordability and Economic Pressures Impacting Demand
Affordability remains a significant factor limiting buyer demand. Rising interest rates, higher development costs, and stretched household budgets are making it more difficult for potential purchasers to enter the market. The end of the Help to Buy scheme has also coincided with a notable reduction in completions, which have fallen by over 10% in the two years following the scheme’s closure.
House prices have increased by only 4.5% over the past four years, while build costs have surged by 17.5%, creating a widening gap that challenges the financial viability of new developments. This imbalance is contributing to developers’ hesitancy in starting new projects and complicating the sale of completed homes.
Energy Performance and Regulatory Considerations
Alongside construction and affordability challenges, there has been a 16% decline in the issuance of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) for new homes over the three years leading up to December 2025. This reduction may reflect slower development activity as well as the increasing complexity and cost of meeting evolving energy efficiency standards.
Landlords and agents should be aware that regulatory requirements around EPC ratings and energy efficiency are becoming more stringent, which could affect the marketability and compliance of new and existing rental properties. Staying informed about these standards is essential for ensuring ongoing landlord compliance and tenant satisfaction.
What This Means for Landlords
The anticipated slowdown in new housing supply could have several implications for landlords and letting agents. Reduced completions may limit the availability of new rental properties, potentially increasing demand for existing stock and influencing rental prices. This environment may present opportunities for landlords to review their portfolios and consider strategic investments or improvements to meet tenant expectations.
At the same time, affordability pressures on buyers could sustain demand within the rental sector, as more households find homeownership less accessible. Landlords should consider how these market dynamics might affect tenancy durations, rent levels, and tenant turnover. Keeping abreast of changes in housing supply and demand will be important for effective property management and compliance with evolving regulations.
What TLA Members Should Consider
- Monitor local planning and development trends to anticipate changes in housing supply that could affect rental demand.
- Review property energy performance and ensure compliance with current EPC requirements to maintain marketability and meet regulatory standards.
- Assess rental pricing strategies in light of potential shifts in supply and demand, balancing competitiveness with income stability.
- Consider investing in property improvements that enhance energy efficiency and tenant appeal, supporting longer-term tenancy agreements.
- Stay informed about government housing policies and support schemes that may influence the rental market and development activity.
- Utilise TLA resources and training to remain updated on landlord compliance obligations and best practices in property management.
TLA Training Academy
The Landlord Association provides structured guidance, compliance education and practical support for landlords, letting agents and property professionals. Members can access training and resources designed to help them stay organised, informed and prepared.
Landlords can explore the Academy here: https://landlordassociation.org.uk/tla-academy/
Those looking to join and access member support can register here: https://landlordassociation.org.uk/get-started-with-the-landlord-association/
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